Riding Request: Parkdale-High Park

 

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This was a really close race in 2014, but there won’t be a repeat of that in 2018.

The Liberals have a great candidate, but the momentum is behind Bhutila Karpoche and the NDP. We don’t see this one being close if even if there is a Liberal upswing in the final week.

So cast your votes with confidence that the Ford Candidate won’t win this seat!

https://phpndp.com/meet-bhutila-karpoche/

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Riding Request: Richmond Hill

We’re taking requests and one of the first was Richmond Hill.

This is a seat that’s been held by the Liberals since it’s creation. But without strategic voting this time around, it will be going to the PCs.

The NDP are polling higher than they ever have before with Marco Coletta bearing the party’s flag. The incumbent is Liberal MPP Reza Moridi.

The two are polling very closely together, giving the PC candidate the lead.

WHAT TO DO?

We suggest waiting until closer to Eday. If the Liberals pick up a couple points in the polls, then you should be voting Liberal to #STOPFORD. If the poll numbers don’t change, well, not much we can do because the candidates too close together. The NDP vote isn’t likely to get any higher than it is, unfortunately.

 

The Curious Case of Spadina Fort-York

This has historically been an NDP riding, but in 2014 Liberal MPP Han Dong stole it with a big win. Dong went on to have a stellar 4 years including the passing of an elevator repair bill that ensures prompt fixing of elevators which was a big deal for condo dwellers in Toronto.

The NDP is a very popular party in the riding and Dong is a very popular MPP. At least that’s what the data tells us.

So it becomes a battle between party vote and MPP vote and we don’t know who is going to win. This isn’t like most ridings where the Liberal incumbent has dropped in the polls along with the party.

The other factor is Eday. Many NDP candidates don’t have the proper Get Out The Vote (GOTV) capacity. This is one area where the Liberals have a huge advantage over the NDP in this riding.

 

A Sea of Orange

For the purposes of this election we’re considering the Toronto ridings to be:

Spadina-Fort York, Toronto Danforth, Beaches-East York, Toronto Centre, University-Rosedale, Toronto-St Paul’s, Davenport, Parkdale-High Park, York South Weston, Eglinton-Lawrence, Don Valley West, Don Valley East.

We’ve covered North Toronto and the Liberal Challenge. Now it’s time for the sea of NDP orange! Because Toronto looks to be turning from Liberal Red to NDP Orange in a major way.

York South Weston, Parkdale-High Park and Davenport will all be going to the NDP. None of them are particularly surprising. All are solid, solid NDP and so there’s no threat from Doug Ford’s PCs.

As we head towards the core, there are even more NDP wins to be had.

Toronto Danforth, Beaches East York will both be going a solid, deep orange.

Then there are two traditionally Liberal ridings that look like they’ll be handed over to the NDP. University Rosedale and Toronto Centre are both very close, but from the info we have access to the NDP is leading in both.

That leaves us with the curious case of Spadina Fort York. Stay tuned.

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North Toronto Ridings, AKA the Liberal Challenge

For the purposes of this election we’re considering the Toronto ridings to be:

Spadina-Fort York, Toronto Danforth, Beaches-East York, Toronto Centre, University-Rosedale, Toronto-St Paul’s, Davenport, Parkdale-High Park, York South Weston, Eglinton-Lawrence, Don Valley West, Don Valley East.

First and foremost we’re going to start in north Toronto because those are three seats the PCs might get if not for strategic voting.

We’ve covered Eglinton-Lawrence before and the situation is still the same. Long-time MPP Mike Colle is fighting off a PC challenger who doesn’t show up for debates. In this riding the NDP appear to be at close to 20% and that means it’s a likely PC win. We need to talk to people and let them know the dynamic and votes need to go in favour of Mike Colle.

Don Valley West. This is Kathleen Wynne’s home riding. She’s not the most popular person in the province right now, but she’s still our best hope to prevent the riding from going to Doug Ford.

Lastly we have Don Valley East. This was supposed to be a lock for the PCs, but the incumbent Liberal is apparently LEADING. This came to the surprise of most of us. So if you’re in the riding consider voting and talking to be about Michael Coteau.

For all we know these could be the only three seats that the Liberals win in Toronto.

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UPDATES COMING TOMORROW

Hi everyone.

With the polls released we’ll be posting a GTA recommendations with one week to go.

We’ll also be taking another look at the ridings we’ve done and will have a few requests for ridings posted as well.

If you have any requests please send an email and we’ll do your riding as well.

Sneak preview: the NDP is surging and they need support. Eglinton- Lawrence is one of the key ridings in the GTA. And one riding has massively conflicting polls.

Stay tuned.

 

 

 

11 days to go

We’ll be updating poll numbers this week as they become available, but in the mean time it’s important to remember what we’re up against.

Below is a graphic with projections. Not all of them are accurate based on the info we have access to, but it paints the picture people need to know.

Even with the NDP surge, the PCs still have a commanding lead in seats. Likely enough for a majority.

So go vote. Donate. Volunteer. It could be the difference.

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